Since last one year the pot was boiling with the discovery of the sub-prime. The boiling pot has now exploded. Suddenly, the big investment bankers are all on the road. The big names are vanishing one by one. The US government is proposing to inject 700 billing USD to revive the patient but who knows it may be too late by now. The G 7 leaders are scratching their head to decide how to deal with this crisis. The G 20 finance ministers (including our own P Chidambaram) are going to meet soon for the same reason. There is a panic everywhere. Some have suggested that the CEOs of the big investment banks should be punished as they were responsible for all this. Some 80,000 persons all over the world may have lost their lucrative investment banking highly paying jobs – 2500 in India alone.

You will find financial experts all over the place (news papers, TV, internet, offices, parties, roads, trains etc.) painstaking explaining the A to Z of the sub-prime to the lesser mortals like me. We don’t have any option but to keep nodding our heads as if we fully understand what is being explained. The other day I was reading an internet joke which said that even George Bush finds it difficult to understand what hit the Wall Street and how the 700 billion USD bail-out package is supposed to help the situation.

Not so long ago, many thought that the world was going to come to an end when Y2K was supposed to hit the global computer networks. On 1st January 2000, did anyone find any mention of Y2K even on the last page of the news paper? What followed shortly was the software bubble burst and hundreds if not thousands were handed over the pink slips. Many retuned back disheartened from the USA.

From 2006 onwards till recently, we have witnessed the big economic boom supposedly fuelled by the Chinese Olympic. China was driving the world economy like mad. This boom had a big impact on almost every country in the world. India too made hay when the Chinese Sun was shining. Even sick public sectors like SAIL, NMDC and MECON suddenly turned into big profit making companies. Indian Railways too rode on the bandwagon and Lalu managed to hog all the credit and publicity. If Lalu got the laurels for the turnaround in Indian Railways, why no one got similar credit for turnaround in SAIL, NMDC and MECON? Everyone’s order books were overflowing. Everyone was getting bigger and bigger. Mittals gulped Arsenal, Tatas got Corus, Birlas got Novelis. These are only the big ones. The Indian M&A list is endless. Investment bankers were in huge demand. Even Hindi films started featuring Investment Bankers as their heroes with palatial mansions and BMWs. Remember Farhan Akhtar in Rock-on?

The Bull outside Bombay Stock Exchange

The blue eyed boys of investment banking were driving everyone to dream big. Loans were no longer being offered, but literally being forced. Remember every second day you would get a call or sms on your mobile to either offer you a loan or a free credit card. There was money everywhere. Real estate and stock markets cashed in on free flowing cash. Luxury Housing schemes and Shopping Malls were being built everywhere – even in B and C grade cities. Sensex knew no bounds and was heading north in big leaps. It managed to reach where no one would have thought it would reach. It crossed 20,000 marks before anyone could understand what was happening. Although NDA had paid the price for claiming it a bit too early but no one not even the Congress Party could deny that India was indeed shining like never before.

Lehman Brothers Head Office in New York

But if anybody thought that the boom was going to last forever, he had not heard what Sir Isaac Newton had said years ago – “What goes up comes down!”

Come 2007 and the whispering had already started amongst those who knew better. That’s when we heard the word “sub-prime” for the first time. Initially everyone thought it was some problem in the US and had nothing to do with us. But we were so wrong. The sub-prime crisis started getting bigger and worse with every passing day – the Domino Effect started hitting economies beyond the US. The economists had already started talking about the “R” (recession) word. Early in 2007, most people would have rubbished the idea but today no one can take that liberty. The fall of Lehman brothers has hit the final nail on the coffin. The paradise is over!

Amongst all this, there are questions which no one is asking and no one is answering. If the Chinese Olympics was driving the world economy since 2007, what will drive China now? Why the USD was plunging against all other currencies in the past two years and just when one would have expected it to dip even faster, all of a sudden, it bounced back like – what you can call – rising from the ashes! Newton never said it but the Americans were always sure – “What goes down comes up one day!” The oil price was rising all the time with falling dollar (some may like to put it the other way round) and there was a similar turn around perfectly synchronized with the USD. There was a time not too long ago when experts were talking about oil crossing 200 $ mark and now the same experts are wondering if it could go below 30$. When the oil prices were rising, everyone would have thought that OPEC was trying to take advantage and deliberately not increasing oil production. What do we say now? OPEC has already hinted at the possibility of cutting production to check the drop in oil price.

The world leaders swung into action immediately after the big boys of the Wall Street started tumbling. US announced the 700 billion USD bail-out scheme. EU leaders are talking about similar bail out. Finance Ministers of various countries are appealing for sanity and assuring the nervous masses that the fundamentals are good and all’s well with the economy. The big bear also hit the Dalal Street and worst affected was ICICI Bank which lost 25% in one single day. There was panic everywhere. People started queuing up in all branches of the bank to withdraw their money fearing a repeat of the Lehman Brothers. ICICI started fire fighting in a big way – sending sms and emails to all their customers, initiating action against a few brokers for deliberately causing the panic and even the FM had to come to the rescue. Next day the Sensex bounced back and so did ICICI.

This is not the end of the story it might just be the beginning! Pinching the famous dialogue of SRK from OSO – “Picture abhi baaki hai mere dost!” (“The movie is not yet over, my friend!”).

It was really very satisfying to note that today my blog titled “Stampede in Jodhpur” was covered on NDTV’s News Net 2.0 Program on the TV. Not only that, NDTV Website has also given a good coverage to the post.

150 people killed in Jodhpur stampede

There seems to be no end to the ordeal of innocent people. 150 died in the Jodhpur temple stampede. TOI Report says that in 2008 more people have been killed in stampede (360) than in terrorist blasts (156). 2008 was not unusual – in the last nine years 875 people have lost their lives in stampedes while 766 were killed by terror bombs.

While the terrorist blasts make bigger news headlines, the end result is the same. What is the government doing about it? Everyone will ask the same old question. The government will institute an inquiry commission as usual. What else can the government do? Can the government manage thousands of temples, mosques, fates, public shows etc. which attract hundreds and thousands of people?

This news makes you really sad. What was the fault of these innocent people? They would have gone to the temple to pray for a better life for themselves and look what they got.

The larger question is – do we really need to throng temples in the false hope of getting a better life? If everything happens with God’s will then what is the point trying to go and appeal against his will? Someone is not getting a job, someone doesn’t have a child, someone’s kin is ill, someone is not getting married, and someone wants to pass in an examination…. the wish-list is endless. What can the God do about it? He has already decided what will happen. Is it right to go and protest against what he has decided for you? People do not go to temples, mosques, churches to pray- they go to protest against God’s will. They want him to change his mind. Will he change his mind? If he does, would that not create a chaos in his scheme of things?

If God has decided that Ramlal will die today and will be reincarnated as Shyamlal. The mother of yet-to-be-born Shyamlal is already pregnant expecting to deliver the child on the same day and Ramlal is seriously ill and is going to breathe his last anytime. What happens if Ramlal’s wife goes to the temple and appeals to the God to change his decision? If God listens to her prayers, Ramlal won’t die. But what happens to Shyamlal? How will he be born? Will God have to kill another person untimely to allow Shyamlal to be born?

If people have to pray, why do they need to crowd the so called places of worship? Is God a doctor who will only see patients in his clinic? Why can’t people pray in their house? Won’t God listen to their prayers? Is he not omnipresent?

Having said that, if it is God’s will that 150 people should die in his own temple, who can change it? Noone can stop hundreds and thousands of people to crowd the temple and take part in the stampede to kill those people. What can the government do? It can’t change God’s will. Can it?

“A Wednesday” is a short and gripping movie. Nasiruddin Shah and Anupam Kher both are masters of their craft and the movie owes a lot to them for its success.

The plot is good but not brilliant. However, talented actors like Nasir and Kher can do wonders with a not so brilliant plot also.

The movie has been well received and appreciated by both the public and the critics which I guess is mainly due to the timing of its release. Obviously, the producer couldn’t have planned it this way. However, the release of the movie immediately after the recent Delhi blast and killing of Police Inspector M C Sharma was a huge advantage as the public was emotionally charged.

The director deserves a pat on his back for his no nonsense approach. He sticks to the plot and doesn’t waste time on item numbers, sub-plots etc.

The main theme of the plot is Nasir’s high tech idea of not allowing his phone call to be traced almost till the end of the movie but the movie fails to provide an explanation how an ordinary man like Nasir can come up with such a high tech idea?

Another amusing depiction was the War Room in the Mumbai Police Head Office. It is difficult to imagine what 50 people are doing in the War Room sitting in front of their computers. The way people sitting in the War Room were trying to trace the call was also very unimaginative. The director has tried to give a techno look to the movie but hasn’t done enough subject research to achieve a convincing depiction.

Another funny scene was when someone in the war room is trying to give a presentation on 4 terrorists out of which at least two were personally nabbed by Anupam Kher himself.

The last monologue by Nasir was well written and really thought provoking.

The real purpose of a review is to tell the reader if the movie is worth seeing or worth missing. I would say that although the movie could have been much better but even then it is not worth missing.

Legendry singer Mahendra Kapoor passed away following a cardiac arrest on Saturday evening.

Mahendra Kapoor’s talent was spotted through an all-India singing competition where he received the best singer award from Mohammad Rafi whom he considered his mentor throughout his life. Music director C Ramchandra gave him his first break with Aadha Hai Chandrama Raat Aadhi in Navrang.

Mahendra Kapoor was best known for his patriotic songs in Manoj Kumar’s movies like Upkar, Purab Aur Paschim, Roti Kapda Aur Makan and Kranti. His song Mere Desh Ki Dharti in Upkar is still the most popular patriotic song. He also sang some of his best songs for B R Chpora Films including Chalo Ek Baar Phir Se Ajnabee Ban Jaaye (Gumrah), Tere Pyaar Ka Aasra Chaahta Hoon ( Dhool Ka Phool), Neele Gagan Ke Tale (Hamraaz) and Sansaar Ki Har Shai Ka (Dhund).

I got the opportunity to meet him when he came to the cultural festival of my college. I was in the protocol team responsible for taking care of his stay in our college during the show. The first thing that strikes you after meeting Mahendra Kapoor is his down to earth attitude. At that time he was still a big name but he never showed that in his behavior. He was extremely cordial and humble with everyone and enjoyed his interaction with young students.

I was fortunate to be present when he was doing the rehearsals for his show and the power and intensity of his voice without the microphone in a closed room was unbelievable. When he sang it felt as if the whole room was reverberating.

His show was a great success and he sang most of his popular songs. When it ended people were still craving for more and on popular demand he even sang a couple of songs after announcement of the end of the program.

Just finished reading Big B’s blog today. At the end of his blog he has quoted an SMS he received from somewhere. I am quoting the same below:

“An ace shooter wins Gold and Government gives him 1+ crore.

Another ace shooter dies fighting terrorists and Government pays him 5 lakhs.

Guess the real winner !!”

It is indeed a thought provoking statement. Death of M C Sharma is still very fresh in everyone’s mind. It is natural to feel sad reading this comparison. But the originator of this statement is only stating half truth. Rs. 5 Lakh was announced by the government of M.P. Uttaranchal Govt. has also announced a compensation of Rs. 5 Lakh, if I remember correctly. I am not sure if the Delhi government has announced any compensation. Rs. 10 Lakh was announced by the Samajwadi Party while J.P. Group has annouced 11 Lakh. The announcement by SP was really surprising because they are known SIMI sympathisers. It is election time and all political parties are trying to play their cards right.

Coming back to the issue, it is really difficult to make a comparison like this. However, the huge importance of a Gold Medal in the Olympics can not be denied. We also must not forget that there are many soldiers and policemen who are dieing every day on duty and it won’t be fair on the part of the government to give a preferential treatment.

No amount of compensation can bring back a brave soldier or a cop but the least the government can do is to ensure that their families are given adequate support.

People call me an ‘enlightened man’ – I detest that term – they can’t find any other word to describe the way I am functioning. At the same time, I point out that there is no such thing as enlightenment at all. I say that because all my life I’ve searched and wanted to be an enlightened man, and I discovered that there is no such thing as enlightenment at all, and so the question whether a particular person is enlightened or not doesn’t arise. There is no power outside of man. Man has created God out of fear. So the problem is fear and not God.

I am not out to liberate anybody. You have to liberate yourself, and you are unable to do that. What I have to say will not do it. I am only interested in describing this state, in clearing away the occultation and mystification in which those people in the ‘holy business’ have shrouded the whole thing. Maybe I can convince you not to waste a lot of time and energy, looking for a state which does not exist except in your imagination.

I discovered for myself and by myself that there is no self to realize — that’s the realization I am talking about. It comes as a shattering blow. It hits you like a thunderbolt. You have invested everything in one basket, self-realization, and, in the end, suddenly you discover that there is no self to discover, no self to realize — and you say to yourself “What the hell have I been doing all my life?!” That blasts you.

What is necessary for man is to free himself from the entire past of mankind, not only his individual past. That is to say, you have to free yourself from what every man before you has thought, felt and experienced — then only is it possible for you to be yourself. The whole purpose of my talking to people is to point out the uniqueness of every individual. Culture or civilization or whatever you might call it has always tried to fit us into a framework. Man is not man at all; I call him a ‘unique animal’ and man will remain a unique animal as long as he’s burdened by the culture.

Nature, in its own way, throws out, from time to time, some flower, the end-product of human evolution. This cannot be used by the evolutionary process as a model for creating another one — that is why I say this is the end-product of human evolution — if it throws out one flower, that’s it, you see. Such a flower, you can put it in a museum and look at it — that’s all you can do.

Mukesh Ambani

In a first-ever referendum, farmers of the Raigada district of Maharashtra have voted against handing over their land for a 1 Lakh Crore SEZ proposal of Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Group.

The Maharashtra government has taken this step keeping in view the experience of West Bengal in Tata’s Nano Project.

The outcome of this referendum was not very difficult to predict and it can be said with reasonable confidence that the result of any other referendum conducted anywhere in the country would be same.

Except for Mukesh Ambani of course, this referendum would have made everybody happy – the political parties, NGOs and the farmers. But the question is – Does this mean curtains for any major industrial project in India? Is there no political will in this country to support developmental projects?

We need huge investment in the industrial sector but how is this investment possible if we are not ready to provide land for these projects. We must not forget that today investors are queuing up with billions of dollars to invest in India and it is the responsibility of state and central government to facilitate the investment. The investors are not going to wait for ever and if we don’t provide a conducive atmosphere, they will go somewhere else. The governments must provide effective governance and come up with more constructive solutions. Referendum is no solutions as we all know its outcome.

M C Sharma

The Delhi Police needs to be congratulated for acting swiftly in the blast case and achieving very encouraging results within a week. In all fairness, the credit should be shared by the Gujarat Police who provided vital leads and information for the Saturday encounter. Abu Bashar was specially flown in from Ahemdabad to identify the house in Jamia Nagar where the terrorists were hiding.

This success by the Delhi Police did not come without a price. The Delhi Police lost one of its finest soldiers Inspector Mohan Chandra Sharma in this encounter. Sharma was the brain and backbone of the Special Cell of DP which is responsible for fighting terror in the capital. Sharma was a fearless cop who knocked at the door of the terrorists without even bothering to wear a bullet proof vest to protect himself. In yesterday’s press conference, his boss Joint Commissioner Karnail Singh lost his cool when a reporter asked him if it was a mistake on Sharma’s part not to wear a bullet proof jacket in such a risky operation. Singh tried to justify the dare devil act by explaining that wearing bullet proof jacket would have alarmed the terrorists and what Sharma did was right. While Singh’s attempt not to allow a controversy immediately after the death of his most trusted lieutenant is understandable, hopefully he knows in the heart of his heart that this dare devil act was not the best and safest way to conduct such a dangerous raid.

Loosing Sharma was like loosing a queen in exchange for a couple of pawns in a game of chess and while the courage, commitment and dedication shown by Sharma is highly commendable we don’t want to loose officers like him.

The recent NSG Waiver has generated a lot of political heat. The attention has momentarily shifted because of the Delhi Bomb Blasts but the Nuclear Deal will surely become the hot topic soon particularly when the Indian Prime Minister travels to Washington on 24th September. It is widely expected that the US Congress will have given its approval for the deal paving way for the singing ceremony during the Indian PM’s visit.

The prophets of doom have been crying foul at the top of their voice citing a whole spectrum of reasons to oppose the deal. While there is some substance in some of the issues raised, at the same time it was amusing to find some absolutely ridiculous objections.

Pokhran-II

One of the major objections raised by the opponents of the deal is that India will not be able to conduct a nuclear test and therefore our national security would be compromised. This is a really funny objection raised by those who have no idea what a nuclear test is all about. They don’t understand that there is a scientific purpose of conducting a nuclear test. The purpose is to generate sufficient data for further defence research. Pokhran I and II were conducted with this purpose in mind. It is important to note that India on its own declared a unilateral moratorium on further tests. This moratorium was declared because the nuclear scientists believed that they had generated sufficient data from Pokhran-II and no further physical tests were required because the data available would facilitate a realistic simulation of nuclear test. It is important to note that none of the other advanced nuclear countries are conducting any fresh nuclear tests because they have enough data from the past test to conduct realistic simulations. If this is true in the case of India then why should we believe that our defence research would be jeopardised because of the nuclear deal. Some opponents of the deal have pointed out that if Pakistan or China conducts a nuclear test in future we will be forced to respond to it by conducting nuclear tests. This is really funny; a nuclear test is a scientific exercise and not an equivalent of a return fire. We won’t become safer by conducting nuclear tests in retaliation. Our nuclear deterrent is the number of nuclear warheads we have and not the nuclear tests. While it is true that in addition to the scientific purpose a nuclear test also proves the nuclear ability of a country, but having successfully conducted two tests, our nuclear capability is already proven and accepted.

It is estimated that India has around 140 nuclear warheads while Pakistan has around 60 and China has around 400. A nuclear bomb is such a deadly weapon that no country in the world would ever get a chance to use even a small fraction of these numbers. For example, even if Pakistan had 5 bombs, it would have been enough deterrent for India. The number of bombs beyond a small number really doesn’t count. Further, the Nuclear Deal doesn’t stop India from making more bombs. In today’s world, what is more important is to have an effective command and control structure and a good weapon delivery system. The nuclear deal doesn’t prevent us from developing more advanced weapon delivery systems, a research that is coupled with our space program. The nuclear deal doesn’t affect our space program at all.

The real issue on the Nuclear Deal is not really related to national security. The real issue is economic feasibility. I will write about this in another post.